Lula’s 51.79% Victory Stalls Brazil’s Planned Embassy Move to Jerusalem

Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva has secured a second non-consecutive term as Brazilian president after winning 51.79% of the valid votes in the Oct. 28 runoff. His center-right rival, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, finished with 48.21%. The result leaves Lula in charge of a foreign policy apparatus that has recently clashed with Israel, while blocking a specific diplomatic maneuver that Bolsonaro had pledged to enact immediately upon taking office.

The vote margin was narrow. Lula, the leader of the Partido dos Trabalhadores, defeated Bolsonaro by a difference of 3.58 percentage points. Bolsonaro, a member of the Liberal Party, stated that he did not accept the election results, although the specific legal mechanisms he might use to challenge the count remain unclear. The election follows a first round on Oct. 4, in which Bolsonaro initially led, prompting a congratulatory message from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on X/Twitter.

The stakes of this election extend beyond domestic politics in Brazil. Bolsonaro had outlined a concrete plan to alter Brazil’s diplomatic presence in the Middle East. Speaking on June 28, 2026, in Buenos Aires to a group of Jewish leaders, he announced that in 2027, Brazil would move its embassy to Israel’s capital, Jerusalem. "In 2027, Brazil will not only once again have an ambassador to Israel, but will also take the step of moving its embassy to Israel’s capital, Jerusalem," Bolsonaro said.

Lula’s administration has taken a more critical stance toward Israel. In January 2024, the Brazilian government supported South Africa’s genocide case against Israel before the International Court of Justice. In February 2024, Lula compared the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza to Hitler’s murder of the Jews. That remark triggered a diplomatic crisis. CONIB, the Jewish umbrella organization in Brazil, condemned the comparison as a distortion that offended the memory of Holocaust victims. The Holocaust Museum of Buenos Aires also criticized the statement.

The reelection disrupts a broader trend in Latin America. Since 2023, several regional leaders have moved closer to Israel. Argentine President Javier Milei has made support for Israel a central pillar of his foreign policy. Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz Pereira restored diplomatic ties severed by his predecessor. President Nasry Asfura of Honduras formally recognized Israel’s new ambassador. Chilean President José Antonio Kast is rebuilding relations. Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella restored ties, sent his foreign minister to inaugurate an embassy in Jerusalem, and withdrew from the ICJ genocide case.

Bolsonaro had cultivated a close relationship with Netanyahu, pledging a strong diplomatic partnership. During his June address in Buenos Aires, he praised the 120,000 Jews in Brazil, describing them as men and women who rank among the brightest in Brazilian medicine, industry, science, culture, and business. Netanyahu had previously expressed hope for restoring the "extraordinary friendship" between the two nations if Bolsonaro won the runoff.

With Lula returning to the presidency, the immediate plan to relocate the embassy to Jerusalem is paused. The Brazilian government will continue its current diplomatic posture, which includes its role in the ICJ proceedings and its recent history of public criticism regarding the military campaign in Gaza. The outcome maintains the status quo in a region where other nations have recently reversed course to strengthen ties with Israel.